Data Exploratory Analysis and Probability Prediction of Slot Booking Cancellation for Container Liner Shipping Services

主题:Data Exploratory Analysis and Probability Prediction of Slot Booking Cancellation for Container Liner Shipping Services
主要内容:Although customers book container slots from shipping companies to transport their cargoes, many of container slot bookings are cancelled, and these cancellations result in low loading rates of ships, which has been a pain point of the container liner shipping industry. However, the cancellation of container slot booking is rarely investigated in the literature. Therefore, the pattern of container slot booking cancellation is unclear to either the container shipping industry or academia. To fill this research gap, this study first studies the cancellation behavior of slot bookings for an intercontinental container shipping service. We develop a viable data exploratory analysis model and use the real slot booking data of Asia to US West Coast service for analysis. This study defines the KPIs to indicate cancellation patterns of shipping voyage. We also discuss the key influential factors on cancellation behavior and investigate the direction of influence. After the data exploratory analysis, we estimate the cancellation probability of container slot bookings by considering these influential factors. We further propose a time-to-cancellation model based on proportional hazard regression. We novelty incorporate the regional feature of container shipping market as a frailty term in model to capture the characteristics of container shipping market. The case study shows that the proposed model is effective in predicting the loaded container volume. It also proves that the model with frailty term can effectively reflect the market regionality and thus improve the model performance. We also shed light on the implications of the coefficients of the covariates and a method to rank the cancellation risk of different markets.
专家姓名:MENG QIANG
工作单位:新加坡国立大学
专长和学术成就:Urban mobility odeling and optimization;Shipping and intermodal freight transportation analysis;Quantitative risk assessment of transport operations
专家简介:Dr. Qiang Meng is currently a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) at National University of Singapore (NUS), the co-director of LTA-NUS Transportation Centre as well as the director of Centre for Transportation Research (CTR) of CEE. His research mainly focuses on urban mobility modeling and optimization, shipping and intermodal freight transportation analysis, and quantitative risk assessment of transport operations. He has published more than 230 articles in the leading transportation and logistics journals, with the H-index rate of 67 and the total citations of 13,337 in Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com.sg/citations?user=0VPLFAgAAAAJ&hl=en). He is the Co-Editor-in-Chief of Transportation Research Part E and Associate Editor of Transportation Research Part B. He has clinched a number of research awards and prizes, including the 2020 TSL SIG Best Paper Award in Transportation and Logistics, the OCDI Takeuchi Yoshio Best Paper Award in the Field of Logistics in the 13th EASTS International Conference in 2019, Engineer Research Award of Faculty of Engineering at NUS in 2018, Chang Jiang Scholars Chair Professorship awarded by the Ministry of Education of PR China in 2017, Outstanding Alumni Award of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2016, Dean’s Chair in Faculty of Engineering at NUS in 2015, the 13th World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) Society Prize for the best paper in 2013.
时间:2021-12-15 10:00:00
地点:交通运输学院

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